The great physicist Richard P. Feynman once said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.” This statement holds true not only in the field of science but also in everyday life, especially when it comes to making predictions and decisions that shape our actions. It is easy to convince ourselves of what we want to believe and to ignore facts that do not support our beliefs.
This tendency to interpret information in a way that confirms our preexisting beliefs has a name: confirmation bias. The problem with this mindset is that it can lead us to ignore or dismiss evidence that contradicts our beliefs, leading us to make bad decisions and ultimately "fool ourselves" into thinking we are right. This can in turn lead us down a dangerous path where we make decisions based on false assumptions and ultimately suffer the consequences.
Long before this human tendency had a snazzy name, Benjamin Franklin remarked, “So convenient a thing to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for every thing one has a mind to do.” As “rational” beings we have the ability to rationalize whatever we want, to find reasons to support any action we want to take, no matter how unreasonable it may seem to others. This is why it is essential to be aware of our own biases and tendencies towards self-deception.
In business, predictions are constantly made, consciously or not, that shape our actions. We predict market trends, consumer behavior, and the success of new products or services. Our predictions often serve as the foundation for business decisions, but they are not always accurate. In fact, they can be completely wrong. This is because our predictions are often based on incomplete or flawed information, and we tend to focus on data that supports our desired outcomes while ignoring data that contradicts them.
And the danger of fooling ourselves is not limited to business decisions. It can also impact our personal lives. We may convince ourselves that a relationship is healthy, even when there are clear signs of dysfunction. We may believe that we are making progress towards our goals, even when we are not taking meaningful action. We may hold on to beliefs that are not supported by evidence, simply because they make us feel better.
The problem with relying on unvetted predictions and beliefs is that they can become self-fulfilling prophecies. If we believe that a product will be successful, we may invest more resources into it, which can make it more likely to succeed. On the other hand, if we believe that a product will fail, we may not invest enough resources into it, which can make it more likely to fail. This is why it is essential to be aware of our own biases and to seek out data that challenges our assumptions.
However, it is not always easy to tell what came first: the prediction or the action. Did we objectively make an assessment and then shape our subsequent decisions based on it, or were we already down a certain path of action, and the predictions are those we want to be true to make our decisions and actions the right ones? How can we avoid falling into the trap of confirmation bias?
The first step is to be aware of the problem. We need to recognize that we are susceptible to this type of thinking and actively work to counteract it. This means being open to new information and perspectives, even if, no, especially when they contradict our existing beliefs.
It also means being willing to change our minds when new evidence emerges. This can be difficult, especially if we have invested a lot of time and resources into a particular strategy or decision. But it is essential if we want to make the best possible choices.
Rarely is it good enough to sit back and wait. Rather, we need to actively seek out diverse perspectives. This means engaging with people who have different backgrounds, experiences, and beliefs than our own. By exposing ourselves to different viewpoints, we can challenge our assumptions and broaden our understanding of the world.
This process can be difficult as our natural tendency will be to push back against people who disagree with us or to think of all the flaws in the arguments that contradict our own thinking. Pausing judgment and being truly receptive to different ways of thinking will make the difference in us growing and learning rather than just retrenching our own flawed way of thinking.
Finally, we need to be willing to admit when we are wrong. This is rarely easy, especially if we have a vested interest in a particular outcome. But it is essential if we want to learn and grow rather than just defend our status quo way of thinking.
It’s not always possible to tell when we are thinking rationally rather than just rationalizing. However, being aware of our own confirmation bias can at least help us not "fool ourselves" quite as much. It is all too easy to find or make a reason for everything we want to do. But if we want to make the best possible decisions, both in business and in life, we need to be aware of this tendency and actively work to counteract it. This means being open to new information and perspectives, seeking out diverse viewpoints, and being willing to admit when we are wrong. By doing so, we won’t always be perfect, but maybe we can play the fool a little less often.